Season 32 Round 35 / 60
Game Time 2023 Dec 07, 04:04 UTC(+00:00)
Some statistical observations
Alex Shapov
2023-10-31 11:40
I've taken data on shots and shots on target from 96 games of this season's group round and found that on average teams made only 4 shots and 1.8 shots on target per game. For comparison: in the Champions League of this season teams made on average 13.6 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game. That's a big difference in my opinion.
Another striking result is the following: home teams made 5 shots and 2.2 shots on target on average per game while away teams made only 3.1 and 1.4 respectively. I think that home advantage is too high.
What do you think?
Paul Doe
2023-10-31 12:09
Context is very important here. A possible explanation is that in the game matches are played between almost equal teams, and in the real Champions League there are many matches between a weak and a strong team. Especially if you take the statistics for qualifying before the group stage.
Kasper A.
2023-10-31 12:26
As I've pointed out many times, my goalkeeper has a save rate at around 10-20 percent. In real life it is much higher for both top teams and lower rated teams
Fathima
2023-10-31 12:32 Edited by Fathima at 2023-10-31 12:34
Yep I just checked the Netherlands division 1 league matches so far.
120 matches, 421 goals. Means 3.5 goals on average per match

Your analysis seems fair. Although I think the number of goals makes sense, there needs to be more shots and shots on target and GK save rates should be higher as Kasper said. May be they ll tweak this in the sim update that tegimus said will happen soon.

But if you compare these stats with other stats in matches - like passes, tackles etc, they seem to be much lower than real life averages too. So it's a sim thing, the sim needs to calculate more activity during matches, so it will automatically boost up these numbers.
Alex Shapov
2023-10-31 12:59
Fathima wrote :
But if you compare these stats with other stats in matches - like passes, tackles etc, they seem to be much lower than real life averages too. So it's a sim thing, the sim needs to calculate more activity during matches, so it will automatically boost up these numbers.


You're probably right. It seems like we play 30-35 min matches instead of 90 min ones in terms of most actions.
Alex Shapov
2023-10-31 13:02
Paul Doe wrote :
Context is very important here. A possible explanation is that in the game matches are played between almost equal teams, and in the real Champions League there are many matches between a weak and a strong team. Especially if you take the statistics for qualifying before the group stage.

Maybe, there's some difference in relative team strengths between our CC and real CL, but it can't explain such a huge difference in the number of shots.
Alex Kalinin
2023-10-31 13:10
Alex Shapov wrote :
I think that home advantage is too high


I agree. I feel like it is roughly +10 overall team rating during home matches (Don't have any data to support this claim, just my observations). Should be around +2 or +3.
Engin Demir
2023-10-31 18:33
Home advantage is definitely high. I am not sure if it can be considered "too high" but I agree that it's significant.

On second thought, To be fair to the game, it is not too high. I can still win against stronger teams away (with luck) and some weaker teams got me toast as well.

I feel like the home advantage is big enough to create room for tactical strategies (like to play to win at home and settling for a draw on away games) while not so big that you can't win against significantly stronger teams.
Michael
2023-11-01 03:36
I think home advantage is real and I think it adds an additional element of difference between games - I'd be disappointed for it to go.

Kaspers point is the element that I think needs sorting - GKs need to be seen to be doing more. I have no doubt that tegimus' point that GK's assist in the restriction of shots and reduction of shots on target is correct (he is the developer after all) but we can't see that which is annoying.

That and the lack of negative impact for bizarre formations are the two biggest issues for the sim I think.

Biggest issues for the game in my view being the massive gulf between divisions and low manager numbers impacting transfer availability (and the gulf between divisions).
Rhino909
2023-11-01 05:41
Paul Doe wrote :
Context is very important here. A possible explanation is that in the game matches are played between almost equal teams, and in the real Champions League there are many matches between a weak and a strong team. Especially if you take the statistics for qualifying before the group stage.


+1
Alex Shapov
2023-11-01 06:45
Michael wrote :
I think home advantage is real and I think it adds an additional element of difference between games - I'd be disappointed for it to go.



I'm not saying that we should get rid of home advantage, my point is that it's too high. Based on my sample it gives home team +60 % of shots and shots on target. Maybe Tegimus could tell us about the real percent of boost for home teams.
Fathima
2023-11-01 11:52
One reason for the increased shots on target stats for home teams could be that managers are kind of scared to play attacking in away games, and total shots are reduced. I always play attacking against much weaker teams regardless of home/away and my performance haven't been much different.

Agree with Michael here, home advantage gives you that extra strategy bit in matches. Especially against almost equal teams - the way you approach the tactics, mind games are all fun 😉
Guildmaster Chax
2023-11-01 14:30
Fathima wrote :
One reason for the increased shots on target stats for home teams could be that managers are kind of scared to play attacking in away games, and total shots are reduced. I always play attacking against much weaker teams regardless of home/away and my performance haven't been much different.

Agree with Michael here, home advantage gives you that extra strategy bit in matches. Especially against almost equal teams - the way you approach the tactics, mind games are all fun 😉


i always attack if the opponent has a morale dent. away game with attacking long ball produce enough shots. the conversion is bad though.